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    Swing Update

    Today’s swing figure:

    » 3.80% swing to the Conservatives «

    There are two new polls out today, with very conflicting messages: The ICM/Mirror/GMTV poll puts Labour five points ahead, whereas the Telegraph/YouGov poll has Labour and the Conservatives in a dead heat. The secret swing formula brings all this out at a 3.8% swing to the Conservatives, which is certainly not as high as a few days ago. A 3.8% swing would reduce Mr Blair’s majority to the mid-nineties, and wouldn’t really be seen as particularly damaging. However, the sampling for these two latest polls was conducted over the last few days when there was no campaigning happening, which I think probably favours Labour naturally. But I could be wrong. We’ll see.





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    Printed from http://sjhoward.co.uk/archive/2005/04/11/swing-update-3
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