Today’s swing figure:

» 2.87% swing to the Conservatives «

Somewhat ironically, after all of their campaigning, the Torygraph have done the biggest damage to the Conservatives’ projected swing today. The Sunday Times/YouGov poll has the parties virtually tied at 36/35, whereas the Telegraph/ICM has Labour with a commanding lead, at 40/30. The Sindie/Communicate poll (the formula has now been adjusted to take account of Communicate polls) has them on 40/34. Of course last time YouGov were most accurate, and it is unusual for these polls to be so different, especially when all three have been published on the same day.

The magic swing formula, as it should really become known, has them on 38/33 at the moment, which is somewhere in between all three (you know, just in case you’re no good at mental arithmetic), so it’s pretty difficult to call where the ball lies today. Obviously, I’m duty-bound to believe my formula above all else. But you can make up your own mind.