Today’s swing figure:

» 2.64% swing to the Conservatives «

Guardian/Populus gives the Conservatives a bit more of a boost, at 37/34 – the closet poll we’ve had in a good while. Mr Howard is still nowhere near the levels he was when I started these daily updates – back then, he was nearing 5% – but he’s moving in the right direction. If this 2.64% swing were really to happen, then Mr Blair would still almost certainly have a three-figure majority, so it’s not hugely impressive at the moment. But we’ll see how this plays out over the next few days.