Today’s swing figure:

» 2.27% swing to the Conservatives «

The new month, and four new polls, haven’t done much to boost the Conservative cause. Having said that, two of the four new polls do have Labour’s lead reduced to just three points: The YouGov/Sunday Times and MORI/Observer polls are both on 36/33. The others are a little wider: ICM/Sunday Telegraph and Communicate/Sindie are both on 39/31.

It’s worth noting, though, that the latter two conducted their fieldwork earlier, both completing the bulk of their work before Lord Goldsmith’s full legal advice made it into the papers - so perhaps that’s having a bigger impact than I’d thought, which could make this coming week rather more interesting, what with today’s revalations of a document that apparently shows Tony Blair had resolved to send British troops into action alongside US forces eight months before the Iraq War began. However, as with all things in elections, the actual document doesn’t quite live up to that billing, though it still seems pretty damning.

What’s certainly clear is that Downing Street’s claim that it contains ‘nothing new’ is - erm - a lie. And, apparently, Tony Blair claims the opposition on focusing on Iraq to distract from UK issues. Well here’s a home issue to get his teeth into: Before being elected in 1997, Mr Blair promised a referendum on electoral reform. Where is it? And doesn’t this just highlight the level to which trust is a problem in this election, and thus underline why Iraq is so crucially important? Surely we should be focusing on the most important duties of a Prime Minister, like committing troops to war?

How am I doing on my own promises? Well, not much better than Mr Blair. This time last week, I said that if the Tories hadn’t built on their position, then they were doomed. Well, their polling figure has fallen, but I’m still not ready to make a prediction because I’m not quite sure how these latest revalations will play out. I’m still pretty certain that Labour will win, most likely with just about a 100 majority (as I’ve said before), but I’m too much of a wimp to say for sure as of yet.

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