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Seven reasons why Brown won’t call an election


Hold up! Before you read on, please read this...

This post was published more than 10 years ago

I keep old posts on the site because I often enjoy reading old content on other people's sites. Not everything that is old is bad. It can be interesting to see how views have changed over time: for example, how my strident teenage views have mellowed and matured.

But given the age of this post, please bear in mind:

  • My views might very well have changed in the 10 years since I wrote this post. I have written some very silly things over the years, many of which I find pretty embarrassing today.
  • This post might use language in ways which I would now consider highly inappropriate or offensive.
  • Factual information might be outdated.
  • Links might be broken; embedded material might not appear properly.

Okay. Consider yourself duly warned. Read on...

There are many, many reasons why Mr Brown won’t call an election in the next few weeks. These include…

  • It would be difficult for him to ‘win’ – only an improvement on Mr Blair’s last performance will be seen as a ‘win’, and that’s not the current trend.
  • The latest polls – Labour has virtually lost its lead.
  • The postal strike – Potential for electoral chaos.
  • Electoral register – Because the new register only comes into force from 1st December, thousands will probably be disenfranchised.
  • Technology – Much of the technical equipment that failed in the May elections hasn’t been fixed.
  • The defence against not calling an election is stronger than that against calling an election. And not calling an election when the Conservatives have called for it makes Cameron look powerless, which is a reasonable swap for Brown looking a bit wimpy.
  • The Brown honeymoon period is now well and truly over.

I’d be surprised if he called an election against that background. My history of predictions is pretty terrible, but poor ability doesn’t stop anything else I do…

This 1,217th post was filed under: Politics.

More posts worth reading

What I’ve been reading this month (published 5th March 2018)

What I’ve been reading this month (published 6th February 2018)

TV I’ve been watching lately (published 9th January 2018)

Photo-a-day 259: Northumberlandia (published 15th September 2012)

Cost of 2012 Olympics and New Labour women (published 25th February 2007)

Review: One Day by David Nicholls (published 14th November 2012)

Michael Portillo makes sense shock (published 3rd July 2005)

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