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About me

Swing Update


Hold up! Before you read on, please read this...

This post was published more than 12 years ago

I keep old posts on the site because I often enjoy reading old content on other people's sites. Not everything that is old is bad. It can be interesting to see how views have changed over time: for example, how my strident teenage views have mellowed and matured.

But given the age of this post, please bear in mind:

  • My views might very well have changed in the 12 years since I wrote this post. I have written some very silly things over the years, many of which I find pretty embarrassing today.
  • This post might use language in ways which I would now consider highly inappropriate or offensive.
  • Factual information might be outdated.
  • Links might be broken; embedded material might not appear properly.

Okay. Consider yourself duly warned. Read on...

Today’s swing figure:

» 2.51% swing to the Conservatives «

A good day for Labour today, with a couple of polls out to give the Conservative swing a bit of a battering. An ICM/Mirror/GMTV poll has things at 41/33 in Labour’s favour, while Telegraph/YouGov has it 36/33. YouGov have the LibDems on a fairly even upward course at the moment, currently at around 23, which is five points up on 2001 – far better than either of the two big parties are doing. And even though YouGov are the only pollsters to have them on a continuous up, every one of the most recent polls from the six big pollsters have them up on their 18% share of 2001.

Compare this to the Conservatives, who are only a couple of points up on 2001 at best, and Labour who, until today, had been down in every poll going. If the trend continues, the Lib Dems could easily win an extra ten seats, which is quite impressive for a party of their size.

At the moment, it looks like Labour are going to hold on to a three-figure majority, though. Which is not what I wanted. You know what’s needed. A ‘Simon Election Broadcast’. Cancel one of the PEBs, no-one’ll notice, and stick me on instead. That’ll sort it. 😉

This 516th post was filed under: Election 2005.

More posts worth reading

What I’ve been reading this month (published 5th March 2018)

What I’ve been reading this month (published 6th February 2018)

TV I’ve been watching lately (published 9th January 2018)

Tidying things up (published 6th November 2005)

Mark Oaten resigns (published 21st January 2006)

Newsflash: Patricia Hewitt doesn’t care (published 11th March 2007)

Jon Stewart: The Daily Show post-9/11 (published 10th June 2006)

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