About me
About me

Swing Update


Warning: This post was published more than 12 years ago.

I keep old posts on the site because sometimes it's interesting to read old content. Not everything that is old is bad. Also, I think people might be interested to track how my views have changed over time: for example, how my strident teenage views have mellowed and matured!

But given the age of this post, please bear in mind:

  • My views might have changed in the 12 years since I wrote this post.
  • This post might use language in ways which I would now consider inappropriate or offensive.
  • Factual information might be outdated.
  • Links might be broken; embedded material might not appear properly.

Many thanks for your understanding.

Today’s swing figure:

» 2.87% swing to the Conservatives «

Somewhat ironically, after all of their campaigning, the Torygraph have done the biggest damage to the Conservatives’ projected swing today. The Sunday Times/YouGov poll has the parties virtually tied at 36/35, whereas the Telegraph/ICM has Labour with a commanding lead, at 40/30. The Sindie/Communicate poll (the formula has now been adjusted to take account of Communicate polls) has them on 40/34. Of course last time YouGov were most accurate, and it is unusual for these polls to be so different, especially when all three have been published on the same day.

The magic swing formula, as it should really become known, has them on 38/33 at the moment, which is somewhere in between all three (you know, just in case you’re no good at mental arithmetic), so it’s pretty difficult to call where the ball lies today. Obviously, I’m duty-bound to believe my formula above all else. But you can make up your own mind.

This 509th post was filed under: Election 2005.

More posts worth reading

What I’ve been reading this month (published 4th December 2017)

What I’ve been reading this month (published 6th November 2017)

What I’ve been reading this month (published 5th October 2017)

Science communication, Question Time and Melanie Phillips (published 3rd April 2013)

What I’ve been reading this month (published 29th May 2016)

Email from Tony (published 4th March 2005)

Casting yourself as the baddie (published 2nd January 2012)

Comments and responses

Comment from sjhoward

by sjhoward

Comment posted at 11:06 on 17th April 2005.

I’ve just updated this post to reflect the Sindie poll which I originally missed. It didn’t make too much difference overall as it happened.

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