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The Final Swing Update

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Hold up! Before you read on, please read this...

This post was published more than 14 years ago

I keep old posts on the site because I often enjoy reading old content on other people's sites. It can be interesting to see how views have changed over time: for example, how my strident teenage views have, to put it mildly, mellowed.

I'm not a believer in brushing the past under the carpet. I've written some offensive rubbish on here in the past: deleting it and pretending it never happened doesn't change that. I hope that stumbling across something that's 14 years old won't offend anyone anew, because I hope that people can understand that what I thought and felt and wrote about then is probably very different to what I think and feel and wrote about now. It's a relic of an (albeit recent) bygone era.

So, given the age of this post, please bear in mind:

  • My views may well have changed in the last 14 years. I have written some very silly things over the years, many of which I find utterly cringeworthy today.
  • This post might use words or language in ways which I would now consider highly inappropriate, offensive, embarrassing, or all three.
  • Factual information might be outdated.
  • Links might be broken, and embedded material might not appear properly.

Okay. Consider yourself duly warned. Read on...

Today’s swing figure:

» 2.25% swing to the Conservatives «

It’s my final update! The graph on the right shows the swing figure as it has fluctuated over the past twenty-eight days. There are four new polls today: ICM/Guardian on 38/32, NOP/Independent on 36/33, Populus/Times 38/32, and YouGov/Telegraph on 37/32. They all agree that there is a Labour lead, but they are also rather more muted leads than we’ve seen published over the last few days, which has obivously given the Conservatives a bit of a boost in today’s figure. The Lib Dems are certainly flying high, which is a good thing.

Looking back, it’s quite incredible how badly the Conservative campaign has gone – right at the beginning, we looked like we were heading towards a hung Parliament, and as they have told us more about themselves, the polls have clearly plummetted – or, rather, the Labour vote has grown whilst the Tories have been pretty close to flat-lining.

The magic formula’s current swing figure is suggestive of a Labour majority of around 120ish. My official prediction, however, defies this…

I predict that around 370-380 seats will be won by Labour (a loss of about 30, majority of roughtly 100 to 110), 185 to 195 for the Tories (gain fo about 25), and 60-70 for the Lib Dems (gain of around 15).

That’s my prediction… Come back on Friday to laugh at how wrong I am!

This 561st post was filed under: Election 2005.

Some recently published posts

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Some random old posts

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