Warning: This post was published more than 5 years ago.
I keep old posts on the site because sometimes it's interesting to read old content. Not everything that is old is bad. Also, I think people might be interested to track how my views have changed over time: for example, how my strident teenage views have mellowed and matured!
But given the age of this post, please bear in mind:
- My views might have changed in the 5 years since I wrote this post.
- This post might use language in ways which I would now consider inappropriate or offensive.
- Factual information might be outdated.
- Links might be broken; embedded material might not appear properly.
Many thanks for your understanding.
Which of the following numbers represents the biggest risk of getting a disease? 1 in 100, 1 in 1000, or 1 in 10?
Almost 30% of Germans and 25% of Americans answered this question incorrectly in this study of statistical numeracy.
It’s an interesting reminder that healthcare professionals shouldn’t underestimate the statistical complexity of risk concepts: I think I’d previously have thought that these descriptions were fairly clear, but clearly they are not well understood.