Warning: This post was published more than 11 years ago.
I keep old posts on the site because sometimes it's interesting to read old content. Not everything that is old is bad. Also, I think people might be interested to track how my views have changed over time: for example, how my strident teenage views have mellowed and matured!
But given the age of this post, please bear in mind:
- My views might have changed in the 11 years since I wrote this post.
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Many thanks for your understanding.
Today’s swing figure:
» 0.95% swing to the Conservatives «
With just 34 hours until the polls open, the Tory swing figure drops below one percent for the first time. That is a Bad Thing. And it’s mainly due to a MORI/FT poll, which has Labour leading 39/29. When I first created the magic formula, I added a little memo in it: “~6.5% = Hung Parliament” With just one final Swing Update to go, I don’t think that will be needed in this campaign. At this rate, Labour can look forward to a 146 majority, or thereabouts. Visit tomorrow for the final Swing Update, and on Thursday (before 10pm!) for my final prediction. Then you can visit on Friday and laugh at how wrong I was. You know you want to.