Today’s swing figure:

» 3.80% swing to the Conservatives «

There are two new polls out today, with very conflicting messages: The ICM/Mirror/GMTV poll puts Labour five points ahead, whereas the Telegraph/YouGov poll has Labour and the Conservatives in a dead heat. The secret swing formula brings all this out at a 3.8% swing to the Conservatives, which is certainly not as high as a few days ago. A 3.8% swing would reduce Mr Blair’s majority to the mid-nineties, and wouldn’t really be seen as particularly damaging. However, the sampling for these two latest polls was conducted over the last few days when there was no campaigning happening, which I think probably favours Labour naturally. But I could be wrong. We’ll see.