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About me

Swing Update


Hold up! Before you read on, please read this...

This post was published more than 12 years ago

I keep old posts on the site because I often enjoy reading old content on other people's sites. Not everything that is old is bad. It can be interesting to see how views have changed over time: for example, how my strident teenage views have mellowed and matured.

But given the age of this post, please bear in mind:

  • My views might very well have changed in the 12 years since I wrote this post. I have written some very silly things over the years, many of which I find pretty embarrassing today.
  • This post might use language in ways which I would now consider highly inappropriate or offensive.
  • Factual information might be outdated.
  • Links might be broken; embedded material might not appear properly.

Okay. Consider yourself duly warned. Read on...

Today’s swing figure:

» 3.80% swing to the Conservatives «

There are two new polls out today, with very conflicting messages: The ICM/Mirror/GMTV poll puts Labour five points ahead, whereas the Telegraph/YouGov poll has Labour and the Conservatives in a dead heat. The secret swing formula brings all this out at a 3.8% swing to the Conservatives, which is certainly not as high as a few days ago. A 3.8% swing would reduce Mr Blair’s majority to the mid-nineties, and wouldn’t really be seen as particularly damaging. However, the sampling for these two latest polls was conducted over the last few days when there was no campaigning happening, which I think probably favours Labour naturally. But I could be wrong. We’ll see.

This 492nd post was filed under: News and Comment.

More posts worth reading

What I’ve been reading this month (published 5th March 2018)

What I’ve been reading this month (published 6th February 2018)

TV I’ve been watching lately (published 9th January 2018)

Review: The Upgrade by Paul Carr (published 7th August 2013)

Quote of the day (published 28th December 2011)

MSN Search Launches (published 1st February 2005)

Photo-a-day 196: Grand Hotel (published 14th July 2012)

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