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Warning: This post was published more than 12 years ago.

I keep old posts on the site because sometimes it's interesting to read old content. Not everything that is old is bad. Also, I think people might be interested to track how my views have changed over time: for example, how my strident teenage views have mellowed and matured!

But given the age of this post, please bear in mind:

  • My views might have changed in the 12 years since I wrote this post.
  • This post might use language in ways which I would now consider inappropriate or offensive.
  • Factual information might be outdated.
  • Links might be broken; embedded material might not appear properly.

Many thanks for your understanding.

Today’s swing figure:

» 3.80% swing to the Conservatives «

There are two new polls out today, with very conflicting messages: The ICM/Mirror/GMTV poll puts Labour five points ahead, whereas the Telegraph/YouGov poll has Labour and the Conservatives in a dead heat. The secret swing formula brings all this out at a 3.8% swing to the Conservatives, which is certainly not as high as a few days ago. A 3.8% swing would reduce Mr Blair’s majority to the mid-nineties, and wouldn’t really be seen as particularly damaging. However, the sampling for these two latest polls was conducted over the last few days when there was no campaigning happening, which I think probably favours Labour naturally. But I could be wrong. We’ll see.

This 492nd post was filed under: News and Comment.






More posts worth reading

What I’ve been reading this month (published 4th December 2017)

What I’ve been reading this month (published 6th November 2017)

What I’ve been reading this month (published 5th October 2017)

Iraq: Three years on (published 26th March 2006)

Dixons to stop selling anything. To anyone. Ever. (published 17th August 2006)

Howard raises fears of race riots (published 23rd January 2005)

Kids’ Mental Health Services and the Recession (published 6th January 2010)


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