Today’s swing figure:

» 0.95% swing to the Conservatives «

With just 34 hours until the polls open, the Tory swing figure drops below one percent for the first time. That is a Bad Thing. And it’s mainly due to a MORI/FT poll, which has Labour leading 39/29. When I first created the magic formula, I added a little memo in it: “~6.5% = Hung Parliament” With just one final Swing Update to go, I don’t think that will be needed in this campaign. At this rate, Labour can look forward to a 146 majority, or thereabouts. Visit tomorrow for the final Swing Update, and on Thursday (before 10pm!) for my final prediction. Then you can visit on Friday and laugh at how wrong I was. You know you want to.

Today’s swing figure:

» 2.54% swing to the Conservatives «

One new poll for the magic formula today: YouGov/Torygraph has the standings at 36/33, exactly the same as the last YouGov poll. The Times tracker, which isn’t included in the magic formula, has them at 42/29, which is seriously disturbing, as it represents a swing of similar magnitude but to Labour, giving them a democratically unhealthy majority of 178. The Lib Dems are still doing quite well throughout poll land, so I’d be quite worried if I were Oliver Letwin. Only two more swing updates to go before the big day, so not much more to go. As a postal voter, I’ve already made my mark. I just hope that David Borrow doesn’t win my seat again, because he’s never responded positively to any of my requests, and he’s very much a career politician. That’s one very good reason to boot him out while we can. So, people of the South Ribble constituency, do what you must!

Andrew Brown’s helmintholog has helpfully pointed me to a very badly censored US Army report, that shows that there were 2,400 attacks directed at Coalition Forces in Baghdad between November last year and March this. And Mr Blair thinks Iraq shouldn’t be an election issue. As Mr Paxman would say, what planet is he on?

I’ve had one from each in the past couple of days. And both were too dull to be bothered reproducing. The Labour one was practically a begging letter, telling me how fantastic the Conservative stategy had been and how the Labour party desperately needed money to combat it – a bit of a turn-around from a ‘desperate attempt to sneak into Number Ten by the back door’…

Today’s swing figure:

» 2.27% swing to the Conservatives «

The new month, and four new polls, haven’t done much to boost the Conservative cause. Having said that, two of the four new polls do have Labour’s lead reduced to just three points: The YouGov/Sunday Times and MORI/Observer polls are both on 36/33. The others are a little wider: ICM/Sunday Telegraph and Communicate/Sindie are both on 39/31.

It’s worth noting, though, that the latter two conducted their fieldwork earlier, both completing the bulk of their work before Lord Goldsmith’s full legal advice made it into the papers – so perhaps that’s having a bigger impact than I’d thought, which could make this coming week rather more interesting, what with today’s revalations of a document that apparently shows Tony Blair had resolved to send British troops into action alongside US forces eight months before the Iraq War began. However, as with all things in elections, the actual document doesn’t quite live up to that billing, though it still seems pretty damning.

What’s certainly clear is that Downing Street’s claim that it contains ‘nothing new’ is – erm – a lie. And, apparently, Tony Blair claims the opposition on focusing on Iraq to distract from UK issues. Well here’s a home issue to get his teeth into: Before being elected in 1997, Mr Blair promised a referendum on electoral reform. Where is it? And doesn’t this just highlight the level to which trust is a problem in this election, and thus underline why Iraq is so crucially important? Surely we should be focusing on the most important duties of a Prime Minister, like committing troops to war?

How am I doing on my own promises? Well, not much better than Mr Blair. This time last week, I said that if the Tories hadn’t built on their position, then they were doomed. Well, their polling figure has fallen, but I’m still not ready to make a prediction because I’m not quite sure how these latest revalations will play out. I’m still pretty certain that Labour will win, most likely with just about a 100 majority (as I’ve said before), but I’m too much of a wimp to say for sure as of yet.