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Hold up! Before you read on, please read this...

This post was published more than 13 years ago

I keep old posts on the site because I often enjoy reading old content on other people's sites. Not everything that is old is bad. It can be interesting to see how views have changed over time: for example, how my strident teenage views have mellowed and matured.

But given the age of this post, please bear in mind:

  • My views might very well have changed in the 13 years since I wrote this post. I have written some very silly things over the years, many of which I find pretty embarrassing today.
  • This post might use language in ways which I would now consider highly inappropriate or offensive.
  • Factual information might be outdated.
  • Links might be broken; embedded material might not appear properly.

Okay. Consider yourself duly warned. Read on...

Today’s swing figure:

» 3.27% swing to the Conservatives «

A weekend without campaigning has been quite damaging for Mr Howard, increasing Mr Blair’s predicted majority to about 102. However, with the election campaign stepping up a gear on Monday, and with no more predicted gaps in campaigning, Mr Howard should be able to build on his good results of last week. He just needs to keep up the pressure.

If this kind of figure continues, however, and proves not to be a minor blip, then there may have to be some big changes to the Conservative strategy. I’m fairly sure this is just as a result of the lack of weekend campaigning, though, so Mr Blair shouldn’t be getting too excited quite yet.

This 489th post was filed under: Election 2005.

More posts worth reading

What I’ve been reading this month (published 3rd December 2018)

What I’ve been reading this month (published 3rd November 2018)

What I’ve been reading this month (published 6th October 2018)

Science communication, Question Time and Melanie Phillips (published 3rd April 2013)

Smoking banned in pubs and clubs (published 15th February 2006)

What now for Madeleine Fund? (published 7th September 2007)

HP Support Blog: Day 8 (published 24th August 2006)


Comments and responses

Comment from sjhoward


by sjhoward

Comment posted at 20:10 on 10th April 2005.

I updated this post at 8pm to take into account the Observer/Mori poll I missed when calculating the figure this morning. Unfortunately, Labour’s seven point lead in that poll somewhat harmed the swing figure from the point of view of the Conservatives, but I’m sure they’ll be back on track before long. The original figure showed a swing of 4.23%.


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