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Hold up! Before you read on, please read this...

This post was published more than 14 years ago

I keep old posts on the site because I often enjoy reading old content on other people's sites. It can be interesting to see how views have changed over time: for example, how my strident teenage views have, to put it mildly, mellowed.

I'm not a believer in brushing the past under the carpet. I've written some offensive rubbish on here in the past: deleting it and pretending it never happened doesn't change that. I hope that stumbling across something that's 14 years old won't offend anyone anew, because I hope that people can understand that what I thought and felt and wrote about then is probably very different to what I think and feel and wrote about now. It's a relic of an (albeit recent) bygone era.

So, given the age of this post, please bear in mind:

  • My views may well have changed in the last 14 years. I have written some very silly things over the years, many of which I find utterly cringeworthy today.
  • This post might use words or language in ways which I would now consider highly inappropriate, offensive, embarrassing, or all three.
  • Factual information might be outdated.
  • Links might be broken, and embedded material might not appear properly.

Okay. Consider yourself duly warned. Read on...

Today’s swing figure:

» 3.27% swing to the Conservatives «

A weekend without campaigning has been quite damaging for Mr Howard, increasing Mr Blair’s predicted majority to about 102. However, with the election campaign stepping up a gear on Monday, and with no more predicted gaps in campaigning, Mr Howard should be able to build on his good results of last week. He just needs to keep up the pressure.

If this kind of figure continues, however, and proves not to be a minor blip, then there may have to be some big changes to the Conservative strategy. I’m fairly sure this is just as a result of the lack of weekend campaigning, though, so Mr Blair shouldn’t be getting too excited quite yet.

This 488th post was filed under: Election 2005.

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Comments and responses

Comment from sjhoward


by sjhoward

Comment posted at 20:10 on 10th April 2005.

I updated this post at 8pm to take into account the Observer/Mori poll I missed when calculating the figure this morning. Unfortunately, Labour’s seven point lead in that poll somewhat harmed the swing figure from the point of view of the Conservatives, but I’m sure they’ll be back on track before long. The original figure showed a swing of 4.23%.


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