Today’s swing figure:

» 2.05% swing to the Conservatives «

A MORI/Independent poll gives the Conservatives a bit of a lift today, with a 36/34 poll in Labour’s favour – a much smaller lead than most other polls recently.

From tonight’s Snowmail:

Integrity, war and law – they are the draw tonight. Aggressive campaign from Mr Howard to undermine Mr Blair, is it working? We may be adding to matters a little tonight, I would advise you not to miss the programme….We’ll be there, same time, same place – but on this rare occasion I would suggest that if you miss this one, you could be upset.

At seven on 4.

Today’s swing figure:

» 1.40% swing to the Conservatives «

That’s the lowest Conservative figure to date. Only one new poll today, NOP/Independent has Labour ten points ahead – 40/30. Every pollster included in the formula – with the exception of ICM and YouGov – now have Labour at 40% or above. That’s almost what they got in 2001. And no-one has the Conservatives any more than two percent ahead of last time. Eek. The Lib Dems are up on last time in every recent poll. So it’s a good day for Mr Blair and Mr Kennedy, and resignation-letter-preparation day for Mr Howard. But there’s still more than a week to go. Can he turn things round? Probably not, but we can watch him try…

This really needs no introduction by now…

Dear All,

Hi!

On Friday I’m going to have to make some very difficult decisions about where to place resources in the last days of the campaign. Direct mail, leaflets, posters, telephone calls – all critical investments that will make the difference in our key seats.

Why? I thought the campaign was ‘largely done‘ now. I wouldn’t bother if I were you. I’d take a long weekend, catch up with the family, maybe go fishing.

We know the Tory strategy:

How? Have you been infiltrating their private meetings again?

flooding a small handful of our key seats with messages designed to frighten their way into power.

Your key seats? The Tories are flooding your key seats? I doubt it. I think they’re probably targeting their key seats, actually. Unless you’re so arrogant that you feel that every seat is one of your seats, and it’s terrible that the other nasty parties are stealing them from you.

You’ve seen their posters.

I have. And none of them frightened me. They highlighted important election issues, and asked if I agreed with their point of view on them (which, for the most part, I don’t). But they didn’t put up big scary pictures of the opposition doctored in anti-Semitic ways, did they?

We can beat them, but I need your help.

I’m not wild about that sentence construction. You should have gone for “Together, we can beat them. But we need your help”. But hey, you didn’t. That’s your choice. Oh, and you won’t be getting my help.

Please help us in the next 24 hours.

I’ll help you in the next twenty-four hours as much as I did in the last. Is that okay with you?

Your support NOW can make a huge difference to our campaign in the last few days.

Given that there are eight days left, it seems strange that you’re talking about ‘the last few’. That’s over a third of the campaign to go.

[Link to the Labour website’s donation page]

I’m not even going to show that link, just in case anyone should be tempted to click it.

We have just a few days to stand up and shout loud to Britain

I’m not going to vote for a party that shouts at me – and I suspect I’m not alone on that. I want a party that can put forward reasoned arguments in a rational and considered way. Not the one that can shout the loudest.

if you value economic stability, a free and fair NHS and continued investment in our schools, you have to go out and vote for it.

And which party isn’t promising all of these things? And, as I’ve said before, I can’t vote for those things, because they are abstract concepts and not candidates.

Please dig deep into your pockets tonight so that the seats that need resources will get them. I know you may have donated your money and your time before, but every penny you can spare is so important.

The seats don’t need resources. The candidates need resources. Unless you’re going to be generous, and split the donations between all the candidates contesting these seats.

[Link to the Labour website’s donation page]

I’m still not showing it.

This is our fight for a historic third term Labour government – embedding progressive values for a generation.

I’m still not wild about ‘a historic’, but as a Guardian-reader I can’t really comment. And the values are only ‘progressive’ if that’s the way I choose to view them.

If you value the progress we’ve made, make a donation today.

If you value the lives of soldiers, don’t.

If you want to see opportunity for everyone, not just the privileged few, in our country, then please help us now.

If you want a truly ethical government, you’re even more naive than me. And you shouldn’t support Labour.

If you want to stop Michael Howard’s campaign of fear, help us to make our campaign as strong as possible in the last few days.

Where is this ‘campaign of fear’? I think I’ve missed it. The only campaign of fear I’ve seen is the one that keeps insisting that the Tories will charge for NHS operations (which they won’t), allow the economy to go to pot (which they won’t), and neglect the most needy (which they won’t). That’s your campaign.

[Link to the Labour website’s donation page]

You clearly underestimate my ability to click on a link you’ve already presented twice. If you think I’m that pathetic, you don’t deserve my vote.

Thanks for all you do for us – it really does make a difference.

Well, okay, I’m not sure exactly what it is I ‘do for you’, but I’m glad that you’re happy with my service.

Matt Carter
General Secretary

I bet you won’t be writing all the emails next week. If we don’t see an email proporting to be from Tony Blair within the next eight days, then I’ll post the full lyrics to the Um Bongo song come 6th May.

Now there’s a challenge.

Tony Blair, following his spring conference epiphany, claimed that he and the party were no longer arrogant. Now it’s not that I’m doubting that, but I’m not entirely sure what else announcing that ‘the job is largely done’ a little under two weeks before polling day – and a little over half way though the campaign – can be called.

When will Mr Blair realise that Mr Campell is more of a liability than an asset? And when will Mr Campbell realise that Mr Blair is more of a liability than an asset? They should, as usual, all be ashamed. And should certainly not receive your vote.

This is a huge non-story – but the symbolism is nice. A former MP, long-time Labour backbencher, now supports the Lib Dems. But if Sedgemore can jump ship, maybe Sedgefield will too? We can only hope…

Tony Blair today defended his decision to take the country to war and accused the opposition parties of campaigning on Iraq because they have “nothing serious to say about the issues facing our country for the future”.

So says the Grauniad. But, in response to Mr Blair, isn’t the gravest issue for our future the responsibility we place in our leaders to ensure our own security? And if this election will result in the election of a Prime Minister who can declare war at will, isn’t it important to know that he would only do that for the best of reasons? It’s possibly the most important issue about our future.

And, besides, the other parties have said far more than Labour about their plans for the future of our country. And their leaders weren’t orange when they said it. And where have your wrinkles disappeared to? Botoxia?

Today’s swing figure:

» 2.18% swing to the Conservatives «

The Conservative bounce is well and truly over. Three new polls today: ICM/Mirror on 39/33, Populus/Times 41/32 (a nine point lead, with exactly the same figures as 2001!), and YouGov/Telegraph 37/33. The YouGov one has the Lib Dems on 24% – that’s enough to send Mr Kennedy into overdrive, and give him nine more seats. It would also leave Labour with a comfortable three-figure majority. But there’s only one poll that matters, and that’s a little over a week away – and a week is a lifetime in politics.

My first pee (Party Election Email – yes, I’m so desperate for a laugh that I’m lowering myself to toilet humour) from the Liberal Democrats:

VOTING HAS STARTED

As you read this, the first votes are being cast in the general election as postal ballot papers have started hitting doormats.

I don’t think there’s anything objectionable in that.

In our target seats across Great Britain, our campaigns are going very well. The campaigners I have met on my tour are buoyed by the very positive response on the doorsteps. The public I meet too are much more friendly and positive than in previous elections.

This could have been taken from any of the parties’ emails. Hardly ground-breaking.

Nationally the picture is good, with the party scoring its highest ever opinion poll ratings during a general election.

This, however, is impressive. The Lib Dems are doing very well in this election – and good luck to them!

Many people have told me how they have been boosted by seeing our large billboard posters around the country. A few have been a bit shocked to turn a corner and find a huge picture of myself!

Shocked? Or afraid? Very afraid?

Over this weekend, all our target seats will be working flat-out to maximise our support in the first wave of postal votes. In many seats we are poised for victory. We need to turn potential into real votes. More than 1 in 5 voters have not yet made up their minds how to vote.

Once again, bland, inoffensive, and could have been written by any party.

So next week will also see a big wave of newspaper advertising from the party. We have already had adverts in many papers, including the Express, Mail, Mirror and Telegraph.

Good to hear.

The extent of our advertising campaign depends on funds. Put simply, the more money we raise – the more we can do.

Makes sense.

You can help extend our advertising campaign by donating now.

I think not.

Best wishes
Charles Kennedy

He’s the only party leader who I truly believe actually thinks about using words like ‘best wishes’. I think he considers it, whereas other party leaders just let that kind of thing trip off the typing-fingers.

P.S. I really want our national campaign to continue to grow to support our grassroots campaigning. But that depends on having the funds – please donate now.

Still no chance, Chaz.

By far the most inbox-filling email campaign has come from Labour’s (unsolicited) emails. Here’s the latest:

Dear All,

Hi!

Thank you for your support.

I offered some?

Thousands of people have already pledged their time and money to help with our local campaigning.

The mad fools.

This will mean that we will be able to speak to more voters and turn out that crucial Labour vote.

Crucial to you, maybe. Me, not so much.

But we know the Tories are planning to blitz our seats in the final few days and whatever the polls say, we know the result in our marginal seats will be very close this time – every single vote will make a difference.

That might even be why they are called marginal seats – you know, I think you’re on to something!

This election will be decided on turnout and whether we win or lose could depend on you.

No, this election will be decided on how many votes each candidate in each consituency gets. That’s how elections usually work. Unless this is some kind of electoral reform – all votes count for Labour, so the higher the turn-out, the bigger the landslide! After all, you have lots of experience fiddling elections!

We need as much time as you can give in the next fortnight and particularly on polling day itself – Thursday 5 May.

I can give you no time. Except possibly the time. And the time to ridicule you.

If you have made your pledge already then thank you.

I haven’t.

But if not please don’t wait for tomorrow

I’m certainly not waiting for tomorrow to make a pledge.

pledge today so we can plan to use our resources in the best way and make sure we deliver a historic third term Labour government.

Erm, no thanks.

Alicia Kennedy
Head of Field Operations

You sound important.

That’s my inbox emptied for the moment.

Today’s swing figure:

» 2.55% swing to the Conservatives «

Three new polls today: The Communicate/Sindie poll has Labour leading at 40/35, ICM/Sunday Torygraph has 39/33, and YouGov/Sunday Times has 37/33. Nobody has Labour’s figure increasing, but equally no-one has the Conservatives increasing either. As the Mail will no doubt be pointing out, all three polls are well within the margin, and could actually represent a dead heat. But that’s highly unlikely, considering that they’re all pretty consistent today, hovering around a five point Labour lead. The Conservatives seem to have been halted in their upward tracks, though it is difficult to say why. They’re down on last Sunday’s swing figure, but well up on midweek. They’re still miles down from the beginning of the month, and this election loks more predictably boring every day.

Unless Mr Howard pulls something out of the bag this week – and the emphasis on Blair’s trust issues might just do it – then I think they’ll pretty much have lost it. Though if they play this story right while Labour’s trying to tell us how wonderful it’s world aid programmes are, then that could score a major blow, too. But there’s clearly a big difficulty in knowing the right way to play that one, without looking opportunistic. We’ll see if they manage it: If the Conservatives haven’t built on their current swing figure by next Sunday, they’re almost certainly doomed.