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Hold up! Before you read on, please read this...

This post was published more than 14 years ago

I keep old posts on the site because I often enjoy reading old content on other people's sites. It can be interesting to see how views have changed over time: for example, how my strident teenage views have, to put it mildly, mellowed.

I'm not a believer in brushing the past under the carpet. I've written some offensive rubbish on here in the past: deleting it and pretending it never happened doesn't change that. I hope that stumbling across something that's 14 years old won't offend anyone anew, because I hope that people can understand that what I thought and felt and wrote about then is probably very different to what I think and feel and wrote about now. It's a relic of an (albeit recent) bygone era.

So, given the age of this post, please bear in mind:

  • My views may well have changed in the last 14 years. I have written some very silly things over the years, many of which I find utterly cringeworthy today.
  • This post might use words or language in ways which I would now consider highly inappropriate, offensive, embarrassing, or all three.
  • Factual information might be outdated.
  • Links might be broken, and embedded material might not appear properly.

Okay. Consider yourself duly warned. Read on...

Today’s swing figure:

» 2.55% swing to the Conservatives «

Three new polls today: The Communicate/Sindie poll has Labour leading at 40/35, ICM/Sunday Torygraph has 39/33, and YouGov/Sunday Times has 37/33. Nobody has Labour’s figure increasing, but equally no-one has the Conservatives increasing either. As the Mail will no doubt be pointing out, all three polls are well within the margin, and could actually represent a dead heat. But that’s highly unlikely, considering that they’re all pretty consistent today, hovering around a five point Labour lead. The Conservatives seem to have been halted in their upward tracks, though it is difficult to say why. They’re down on last Sunday’s swing figure, but well up on midweek. They’re still miles down from the beginning of the month, and this election loks more predictably boring every day.

Unless Mr Howard pulls something out of the bag this week – and the emphasis on Blair’s trust issues might just do it – then I think they’ll pretty much have lost it. Though if they play this story right while Labour’s trying to tell us how wonderful it’s world aid programmes are, then that could score a major blow, too. But there’s clearly a big difficulty in knowing the right way to play that one, without looking opportunistic. We’ll see if they manage it: If the Conservatives haven’t built on their current swing figure by next Sunday, they’re almost certainly doomed.

This 532nd post was filed under: Election 2005.

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