Today’s figure, which includes a slight refinement to the secret swinging formula…

» 4.82% swing to the Conservatives «

It’s a good day for Mr Howard as his lead increases and he reduces Mr Blair’s majority to about 60 seats. This is the level at which Mr Blair’s leadership would start to be questioned, since it would look like he’d done some serious damage to Labour’s share of the vote. We’ll see how this develops over the coming days…