Andrew Brown’s helmintholog has helpfully pointed me to a very badly censored US Army report, that shows that there were 2,400 attacks directed at Coalition Forces in Baghdad between November last year and March this. And Mr Blair thinks Iraq shouldn’t be an election issue. As Mr Paxman would say, what planet is he on?

I’ve had one from each in the past couple of days. And both were too dull to be bothered reproducing. The Labour one was practically a begging letter, telling me how fantastic the Conservative stategy had been and how the Labour party desperately needed money to combat it – a bit of a turn-around from a ‘desperate attempt to sneak into Number Ten by the back door’…

Today’s swing figure:

» 2.27% swing to the Conservatives «

The new month, and four new polls, haven’t done much to boost the Conservative cause. Having said that, two of the four new polls do have Labour’s lead reduced to just three points: The YouGov/Sunday Times and MORI/Observer polls are both on 36/33. The others are a little wider: ICM/Sunday Telegraph and Communicate/Sindie are both on 39/31.

It’s worth noting, though, that the latter two conducted their fieldwork earlier, both completing the bulk of their work before Lord Goldsmith’s full legal advice made it into the papers – so perhaps that’s having a bigger impact than I’d thought, which could make this coming week rather more interesting, what with today’s revalations of a document that apparently shows Tony Blair had resolved to send British troops into action alongside US forces eight months before the Iraq War began. However, as with all things in elections, the actual document doesn’t quite live up to that billing, though it still seems pretty damning.

What’s certainly clear is that Downing Street’s claim that it contains ‘nothing new’ is – erm – a lie. And, apparently, Tony Blair claims the opposition on focusing on Iraq to distract from UK issues. Well here’s a home issue to get his teeth into: Before being elected in 1997, Mr Blair promised a referendum on electoral reform. Where is it? And doesn’t this just highlight the level to which trust is a problem in this election, and thus underline why Iraq is so crucially important? Surely we should be focusing on the most important duties of a Prime Minister, like committing troops to war?

How am I doing on my own promises? Well, not much better than Mr Blair. This time last week, I said that if the Tories hadn’t built on their position, then they were doomed. Well, their polling figure has fallen, but I’m still not ready to make a prediction because I’m not quite sure how these latest revalations will play out. I’m still pretty certain that Labour will win, most likely with just about a 100 majority (as I’ve said before), but I’m too much of a wimp to say for sure as of yet.

It would appear that it’s not just earthlings worried about the prospect of a third Labour term…

Though, being illegal aliens, you’d think they’d be more worried about the Conservative prospects.

Today’s swing figure:

» 1.95% swing to the Conservatives «

The lack of any new polls today means that the only change in the swing is due to the changing relativity of the age of the polls. Nothing exactly groundbreaking.

More interesting is the Indy’s exposé of yet another Labour lie – voting Lib Dem (which the Indy is almost certain to tell us to do) would not ‘let the Tories in by the back door’. It would take a swing from Labour to the Lib Dems of over 23% for that to happen. But hey, what’s one more lie if it makes people vote Labour?

Blair has admitted that he doesn’t know the effect he’s GP waiting time targets have on patient care. He didn’t realise that it was impossible to make appointments in advance. He’s clearly not a dedicated fan of this site, then, because it’s a issue I identified months ago.

But, more importantly, how can we re-elect a leader that introduces silly targets, and then ignores – or, more acurately, doesn’t even make an effort to find out about – the probems these targets create?

And the particularly hilarious thing is that even after having the situation explained by members of the public, John Reid still doesn’t get it:

John Reid, the health secretary, acknowledged that there were problems but stressed that the target had produced much quicker access for many patients. A few years ago, many patients had to wait a week to 10 days to see a GP, he said, while on the latest figures, 97 per cent are seen within two days.

The reason 97 per cent are seen within two days is because you’re only allowed to make an appointment within two days. It isn’t an improvement. That’s the problem. Patient satisfaction has fallen.

Today’s swing figure:

» 2.02% swing to the Conservatives «

One new poll: YouGov/Telegraph 36/32. So that’s quite close. And the Lib Dems are on 24%. Noting too exciting or revolutionary here.

More ‘hilarious’ and unsolicited emails from the Labour Party:

At this stage in the campaign I think it is very important that we avoid sinking to personal insults and name calling of the sort that we’ve been getting from those unprincipled scumbags in the Tory Party.

I think that’s supposed to be funny. But the irony is that it sounds more like a parody of a Blair speech than anything else.

We have to stick to the issues.

Like the issues of whether Mr Blair will be launching any more wars to add to the five in his previous eight years? Or whether someone who has openly broken Ministerial Code should resign?

And for me, one of the biggest issues is that we can’t have Michael Howard as Prime Minister.

Why not? Because you’re going to fix the voting?

It is terrifying to think that in a week’s time we could actually have a Tory government.

It isn’t even remotely scary. Let alone terrifying.

And if you just read that and thought ‘nah, it couldn’t happen’ imagine exactly the same presumption in millions of other voters; all thinking that it’s safe to abstain or vote against Labour this time.

Wouldn’t that be a joy?

There should, of course, be more to an election campaign than just being negative about the Tories.

But sadly, there isn’t.

That Charles Kennedy is a waste of space as well.

But you haven’t yet managed to convince your leader that he’s a serious threat.

But here are some important facts about the Conservative Party:

Interesting.

Today’s blame culture is all their fault.

Evidence?

When they abolish the Winter Fuel Allowance and free TV licences, pensioners will be expected to burn their tellies to keep warm.

That’s interesting. Instead of getting a £250 fuel allowance, and a £126.50 TV licence – total £376.50 – the pensioners will be rewarded under the Tories with a £500 reduction in their Council Tax bill. And yet you think that they’ll be unable to keep warm. Evidence?

Crime went up under the Tories (not surprising when you look at all the senior Tories like Archer and Aitken who ended up in prison).

And violent crime has gone up under Labour – not surprising when you look at all the violent crime precipitated by the senior Labourites like Blair and Campbell launching unjust violent wars.

When Michael Howard last faced a leadership election he came fifth. There were five candidates.

When the party leaders were rated for trustworthiness, Mr Blair came third. There were three leaders considered.

Yes when they last had the chance to vote for him, the people who know him best decided that he was:
* less appealing than John Redwood
* less of a fresh face than Kenneth Clarke
* less moderate than Peter Lilley
* and less likely to win an election than William Hague.

You know that’s what they were thinking? Evidence?

So don’t stand back and let the Tories win by accident. If it hadn’t been for people who cared taking the trouble to vote,

I don’t intend to let the Tories win by accident.

we would never have had the minimum wage

Why not? If ‘people’ hadn’t taken the trouble to vote, then surely the proportions would still have been roughly the same?

would never have had the NHS

Except the foundations and proposition for the NHS were laid by a Conservative government.

and John McCririck might have won Celebrity Big Brother.

We could only hope.

So please, if everyone who receives this email was able to persuade one wavering voter to back Labour, we could avoid another 18 years of Tory government starting on Thursday.

So once the Tories win the election, everything will be so rosy that we won’t want to return to Labour for eighteen years?

Pick one person you know and work on them non-stop from now until 5 May. The bloke I’ve chosen is still really angry with this Government but I’ve told him he has to move on and see the bigger picture. After all it was four years ago now and John Prescott didn’t mean to punch him that hard…

Humour really doesn’t work for me here.

John O’Farrell
Author and Broadcaster

Presumably writing because nobody on the campaign can be bothered with the little people.

Today’s swing figure:

» 1.62% swing to the Conservatives «

Two new polls today: ICM/Guardian has 40/33, and Populus/Times has 40/31. The magic forumla says it’s 39/32. Whichever way you look at it, Mr Howard is failing to do anything at all convincing.

I don’t understand why the great unwashed masses apparently dislike the government and Mr Blair, and yet are still telling pollsters that they will vote Labour. Maybe I’m just a bit thick.

Now we know why Jon Snow told us to watch. The Attorney General’s full advice on the legality of the war is out.

Tony Blair denied this document existed. Tony Blair said today “I have never told a lie. No. I don’t intend to go telling lies to people. I did not lie over Iraq.”

The paragraph above makes something plainly clear. Tony Blair lied to the public. Unquestionably. And, from comparing the full document to the summary, it looks like he may well have lied to Parliament as well – something much, much more serious. Surely even Bouncey Blair can’t ride this one out? If he is re-elected, he’s going to be facing an inquiry that, unlike the previous ones, he simply can’t fix. Unless, of course, he resigns.

The crisis at Labour HQ begins… If Alistair Campbell thought his job was almost done, he’s in for a nasty shock this evening.