I’ve had little more than a flick through the Labour manifesto, but one thing immediately jumped out at me:

New Labour’s record:
The contract delivered Our country is changing for the better, because we fulfilled the promises of our 1997 and 2001 manifestos.

This jumped out for two reasons: Firstly, it’s in absurdly large type. Secondly, it’s not true: It’s another Labour lie.

Back in March last year I listed a number of Labour Lies and broken promises, six of which were drawn from the 2001 manifesto. You can look for yourself, here. And here’s another list of nine, which I originally posted on an internet forum:

» We will now give British people the final say in a referendum on the single currency
Not delivered.

» We will now reform the appointments system so that by the end of 2005 every hospital appointment is booked for the convenience of the patient making it easier for patients and their GP to choose the hospital and consultant that best suits their needs.
Will not be delivered anywhere near on time.

» We want to help the Post Office keep up with the best in a fast-changing market.
Apparently by allowing hundreds of branches to close.

» We will not introduce ‘top-up’ fees and have legislated to prevent them.
So what happened to this legislation when Labour broke their promise?

» By 2004, patients will be able to see a GP within 48 hours.
Not fully delivered.

» Same day tests and diagnosis will become the norm.
The fastest I’ve seen an out-patient blood test come back is 48hrs.

» We will give every citizen a personal smartcard containing key medical data giving access to their medical records.
Have you got yours?

» The Criminal Records Bureau will help stop paedophiles and others who are a danger to children from working with them
Except it didn’t work for the Soham girls, did it?

» By 2004 we are pledged to reduce teenage pregnancy by 15 per cent.
Complete and utter failure.

So, given that the first jump-out page of the new manifesto is a lie, which bits of it are things that Mr Blair actually means, and which ones are bits that he’s saying just to get votes? I think we should be told.

Today’s swing figure:

» 3.30% swing to the Conservatives «

For the first time since I started doing these updates, there’s no change today in the swing figure. Whether today’s news will change the figure, with the launch of Labour’s manifesto, we’ll just have to wait and see!

Ignoring MediaGuardian‘s inability to use words to form proper sentences, take a look at this quote:

And controversy surrounding the party’s election slogan, “Are you thinking what I’m thinking?” surfaced when which turned out to be the catchphrase of a pair of Australian children’s TV characters called Bananas in Pyjamas.

If the fact that the Conservative slogan is the same as that of Bananas in Pyjamas is the best attack that it’s rivals can come up with right now, then they should be polling at around 98%. It’s a ridiculous (though comical) statement to make.

Today’s swing figure:

» 3.30% swing to the Conservatives «

More bad news for the Conservatives today, with the publication of an NOP/Independent poll. It’s not looking good for Mr Howard recently, but Mr Blair will be smiling to himself. Let’s just hope that things will pick up again soon!

Alistair Campbell this time, with some nasty negative campaigning.

Well there it is – the Tories have published their manifesto today and all around you can almost hear the country’s civil servants asking “how on earth do we turn that into a policy programme for government?”

Thin or what?

Well they never managed to turn your 2001 manifesto into a policy programme for government, did they Alistair? After all, you made lots of commitments in that which you’ve completely failed to keep, and several that you’ve done a complete U-turn on. So I don’t think you can start insulting other party’s manifestos when you can’t even live up to your own pitifully low standards. And I notice that you chose the word ‘thin’ very carefully, since you’re about to launch the smallest manifesto in British electoral history, what with it being pocket-size and all.

I suggest we move on. Moving on is something you’re keen to do, after all.

But more than that, the Tory “manifesto” is dangerous. Economically dangerous above all. As Tony and Gordon said yesterday, you cannot cut tax and increase spending and reduce borrowing with the same money at the same time.

I think you’re a bit simple. I don’t necessarily agree with the Conservative economic plans, but I do know that they’ve been fully costed, and, unlike Labour’s plans, several economic experts agree with their proposals.

How can you cut tax, increase spending, and reduce borrowing, all at the same time? By reducing government waste, and then splitting the money you save between those three policies. Was that difficult to understand? Probably not enough spin on it for you.

I remember the agonies we went through in opposition to make sure Labour policies stacked up and the sums added up. It is apparent that Mr Howard and the ludicrous Letwin have shown nothing like the rigour Tony and Gordon did back in 1997.

Such agony that you promised not to raise taxes, and then – erm – did. That doesn’t sound much like a policy that adds up to me. And it’s nice to see that you made all of your policies add up in 1997. Did you not bother in 2001, or indeed this time?

The Tory manifesto, the thinnest in history, confirms that the Tories intend to fight a totally negative, small bore campaign focusing on a series of negative messages and without even an attempt to put a positive vision for the future.

Point to the positive vision that you’ve emailed me up to now, and I’ll give you a banana.

It is a campaign based on fear and grievance.

This from the party that says that our whole country is at risk if we vote Conservative. That sounds like a campaign based on fear to me. And is it not right for the opposition to have grievance with the government? Most of the people of this country have.

You can see it from their posters and the messages that come pouring out of Mr Howard, his hidden away Shadow Cabinet and “immigrant” Australian campaign managers.

Hidden away members of the party? Doesn’t that describe you? Hidden away until your role in the election was exposed? And what about the internet guru who’s registed Michael Howard domain names, and was shamed in America for comparing George W Bush to Hitler? The Labour party won’t even tell us what he’s doing!

To call the Tory party campaign managers ‘immigrants’ is a cheap shot and you know it. The Conservative party, whose immigration policity I personally abhor, are not saying that immigration should halt, which is the myth you are helping to perpetuate. They have different, some think more sensible, policies than you. That does not mean that your policy is better, and it doesn’t mean that their’s is better. It invites reasoned comparison. Not dishonest lies.

And which memebers of the Shadow Cabinet have been hidden away? I’ve seen most of them on a number of political shows. If anybody’s hiding a member of the cabinet, then it’s your party hiding it’s head, by featuring him on only a handful of election materials.

But the Labour Party can still take nothing for granted. The Tories have a lot more money than we do. They have more for posters, more for campaign materials, more for organisation.

So the Conservatives can actually do some things better?

They have several newspapers led by the vile (interestingly an anagram of evil) Daily Mail willing to pour out free pro-Howard propaganda and ridiculous anti-Labour bile for them.

The Daily Mail is vile? Was it vile when it supported you vociferously in 1997? Was it vile when you took nearly every policy cue from them? Or is this a new development, now it’s gone all Conservative on you?

So we have to use every way we can to get over positive messages about our record and above all our future programme for a third term if we are elected.

Well you’re not doing very well. I have yet to hear anything positive from you. Everything has been a slur on the Conservatives. Even your election slogan is a dig, with it’s ‘not back’ tag.

Party election broadcasts are a well known way of trying to get over a message during the campaign. Tonight the first is aired. It focuses on our greatest strength, the economy, and does so by recording a series of conversations between Tony and Gordon. They are the two main architects of New Labour and drivers of progress in the last eight years.

I was supposed to believe they were spontaneous conversations? That whole broadcast was a joke. It couldn’t have been a more clearly crafted attempt to show Blair and Brown as united if you’d put up a caption saying ‘We’re not fighting’. And nobody believes it. In fact, nobody believes anything Labour says any more. And, hilariously, that’s largely your fault.

Watch it. Get your friends to watch it. I defy anyone who does to say afterwards that Mr Howard and Mr Letwin should take over from them.

It didn’t even begin to show anything that would make me favour Mr Blair over Mr Howard, or indeed Mr Brown over Mr Letwin. It did provide some light entertainment though, with the poor acting and Mr Blair’s steely resolve not to smile. After all, the focus groups don’t like smiling.

Best wishes,
Alastair Campbell

I don’t think I even need to reiterate my personal feelings about you. The worst aspect of your nature is that you’re not even very good at what you do, as I’ve detailed before. You symbolise everything that’s wrong with Labour. But, just in case you’ve forgotten, here’s what I think of your role in the election campaign.

I said it then, and I’ll say it now. Labour should be ashamed to have you back on board, and it can do nothing but harm to their campaign.

Today’s swing figure:

» 3.27% swing to the Conservatives «

A weekend without campaigning has been quite damaging for Mr Howard, increasing Mr Blair’s predicted majority to about 102. However, with the election campaign stepping up a gear on Monday, and with no more predicted gaps in campaigning, Mr Howard should be able to build on his good results of last week. He just needs to keep up the pressure.

If this kind of figure continues, however, and proves not to be a minor blip, then there may have to be some big changes to the Conservative strategy. I’m fairly sure this is just as a result of the lack of weekend campaigning, though, so Mr Blair shouldn’t be getting too excited quite yet.

The whole Rover crisis (latest here) will doubtless play a major role in the upcoming election for the marginal seats surrounding Longbridge, and so the ‘B’ team (Brown and Blair) will doubtless be doing their best to help people to keep their jobs.

From what I’ve seen thus far of their handling of this crisis, though, they’ve bungled it. Badly. From the moment Patricia Hewitt announced that the company had called in the administrators when, in fact, they hadn’t, it was obvious that the government wouldn’t handle this whole crisis well. As far as I can see, this government has never been terribly good in a crisis – it’s suffered a battering through fuel protests, handled foot-and-mouth frankly terribly, invaded countries under false pretences, and the PM has stayed on his hols whilst tens of thousands are dying in the biggest tsunami in living history. And yet people still rate him as good in a tough spot. I would suggest that this is more because he is in power than because of anything he’s actually done.

Anyway, back to matters at hand. I’m not entirely sure on what I see as the ‘right’ course of action in this situation: Should Rover be supported with tax-payers money? Probably not. But should thousands be left jobless because of a government’s wish not to get involved? Probably not. And would Tony and Co. suffer from not being seen to be helping? You bet. So what’s the right course of action? Beats me.

I’d like to think I’d stick to my principles, and let the people be made jobless, rather than electioneering. That might seem a little under-compassionate for the families who would suffer, but governments can’t be bowing to companies to avoid job losses, or we’re no longer living in a democracy. Why should Rover get handouts just because the company is threatened with closure? Would other companies then get handouts if they announce they’re to up and leave to China? It’s a bad precedent to set.

That’s the position I’d like to take, but I think it would be very difficult. The government will be criticised for whatever it does in this situation, so I think it’s probably best to just leave them to find a way through this, and live with the outcome. I’ve said what I felt needed to be said, and unless they do something spectacularly stupid, I won’t be posting any criticism of their actions on this in future.

Well, actually, knowing me, I almost certainly will, but hey-ho, I can do that, because I’m not in government… and therefore I’m in a much easier position than them!

Today’s swing figure:

» 4.67% swing to the Conservatives «

A slight dip for the Conservatives today after a day with no campaigning. Clearly, they need to keep the pressure up for the rest of the campaign.

Today’s swing figure:

» 4.88% swing to the Conservatives «

No huge change today, clearly 0.06 is well within the margin of error, but better that it’s a swing away from Blair than one towards him, I guess.

Today’s figure, which includes a slight refinement to the secret swinging formula…

» 4.82% swing to the Conservatives «

It’s a good day for Mr Howard as his lead increases and he reduces Mr Blair’s majority to about 60 seats. This is the level at which Mr Blair’s leadership would start to be questioned, since it would look like he’d done some serious damage to Labour’s share of the vote. We’ll see how this develops over the coming days…