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Political numberwang

As the NHS continues to collapse, you will hear a lot over coming days about 7,000 ‘extra’ hospital beds—the number the Government has pledged to ‘create’ to reduce A&E waits. This appears to be part of a conscious strategy, perhaps best described as ‘political numberwang’: bandy around a big number, and political journalists seem to freeze, with perhaps the only follow-up being ‘and how are you going to pay for it?’

Matt Hancock was a master of this art. By counting individual gloves separately, despite them being neither sold nor used as separate items, he was able to quote ridiculous figures for the ‘number of items of PPE distributed’. His inflated numbers made little difference to social care staff left wearing ‘aprons’ fashioned from bin bags.

7,000 beds sounds like a lot—but is, in fact, about half of one percent of the total number of beds available in the NHS. It’s far less than the 12,000 NHS beds occupied on Christmas Day by people fit for discharge but for whom no social care placement was available. It’s also less than 20% of the 37,000 beds cut from the NHS over the period since the 2010 General Election. And there’s no answer as to how these will be staffed when we’re already 40,000 nurses short of a full complement.

You’ll also hear a lot about an ‘extra’ £14.1bn of support the Government has pledged over the next two years to help ‘tackle the backlog’. That’s a roughly 4% of the NHS budget—a fraction of the cost of inflation alone.

Numberwang cannot fix health and social care, and I’m not even sure it’s a successful strategy for propping up electoral support any more. We can’t go on like this.

This post was filed under: Health, News and Comment, Politics, Post-a-day 2023.

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