There are many, many reasons why Mr Brown won’t call an election in the next few weeks. These include…

• It would be difficult for him to ‘win’ – only an improvement on Mr Blair’s last performance will be seen as a ‘win’, and that’s not the current trend.
• The latest polls – Labour has virtually lost its lead.
• The postal strike – Potential for electoral chaos.
• Electoral register – Because the new register only comes into force from 1st December, thousands will probably be disenfranchised.
• Technology – Much of the technical equipment that failed in the May elections hasn’t been fixed.
• The defence against not calling an election is stronger than that against calling an election. And not calling an election when the Conservatives have called for it makes Cameron look powerless, which is a reasonable swap for Brown looking a bit wimpy.
• The Brown honeymoon period is now well and truly over.

I’d be surprised if he called an election against that background. My history of predictions is pretty terrible, but poor ability doesn’t stop anything else I do…