A year ago, I made a prediction. It was my ‘Tip for 2006’:

Patricia Hewitt will be forced to resign as Health Secretary before year’s end… or, if there’s a reshuffle, her sucessor will be forced to resign. One way or another, we will see the resignation of a Health Secretary this year.

Ah. Well. Yes. Not the best prediction in the world. In fact, pants.

My prediction for 2005 is kind of coming of age, though. I predicted that MSN, and particularly MSN Search, would be the ‘one to watch’. Well, in a blaze of advertorial glory, it’s gaining ground. So I wasn’t far wrong, just two years ahead of my time. Okay, I’m trying to talk myself out of a hole, alright?

So what’s my prediction for 2007? Well, there’s the easy ones, like Blair’s resignation and the serious back-scaling of troop numbers in Iraq. But they’re easy, and I don’t do easy. So here we go: I reckon that the outcome of Yates of the Yard’s investigation of the Party Loans scandal will be a bigger political story in the long-run of the year than Brown’s leadership succession. I reckon the charges are going to be more stinging than anyone imagines, the Labour Party will be pretty damaged, and the transition will hence be a lot more orderly than is currently expected – but there will be a bumpier ride in the long run.

So there you go. Not quite as specific or objective as other years, but maybe this time next year I’ll be able to report at least a modicum of success… Or not.