Today’s swing figure:

» 1.62% swing to the Conservatives «

Two new polls today: ICM/Guardian has 40/33, and Populus/Times has 40/31. The magic forumla says it’s 39/32. Whichever way you look at it, Mr Howard is failing to do anything at all convincing.

I don’t understand why the great unwashed masses apparently dislike the government and Mr Blair, and yet are still telling pollsters that they will vote Labour. Maybe I’m just a bit thick.

Now we know why Jon Snow told us to watch. The Attorney General’s full advice on the legality of the war is out.

Tony Blair denied this document existed. Tony Blair said today “I have never told a lie. No. I don’t intend to go telling lies to people. I did not lie over Iraq.”

The paragraph above makes something plainly clear. Tony Blair lied to the public. Unquestionably. And, from comparing the full document to the summary, it looks like he may well have lied to Parliament as well – something much, much more serious. Surely even Bouncey Blair can’t ride this one out? If he is re-elected, he’s going to be facing an inquiry that, unlike the previous ones, he simply can’t fix. Unless, of course, he resigns.

The crisis at Labour HQ begins… If Alistair Campbell thought his job was almost done, he’s in for a nasty shock this evening.

Today’s swing figure:

» 2.05% swing to the Conservatives «

A MORI/Independent poll gives the Conservatives a bit of a lift today, with a 36/34 poll in Labour’s favour – a much smaller lead than most other polls recently.

From tonight’s Snowmail:

Integrity, war and law – they are the draw tonight. Aggressive campaign from Mr Howard to undermine Mr Blair, is it working? We may be adding to matters a little tonight, I would advise you not to miss the programme….We’ll be there, same time, same place – but on this rare occasion I would suggest that if you miss this one, you could be upset.

At seven on 4.

Today’s swing figure:

» 1.40% swing to the Conservatives «

That’s the lowest Conservative figure to date. Only one new poll today, NOP/Independent has Labour ten points ahead – 40/30. Every pollster included in the formula – with the exception of ICM and YouGov – now have Labour at 40% or above. That’s almost what they got in 2001. And no-one has the Conservatives any more than two percent ahead of last time. Eek. The Lib Dems are up on last time in every recent poll. So it’s a good day for Mr Blair and Mr Kennedy, and resignation-letter-preparation day for Mr Howard. But there’s still more than a week to go. Can he turn things round? Probably not, but we can watch him try…

This really needs no introduction by now…

Dear All,

Hi!

On Friday I’m going to have to make some very difficult decisions about where to place resources in the last days of the campaign. Direct mail, leaflets, posters, telephone calls – all critical investments that will make the difference in our key seats.

Why? I thought the campaign was ‘largely done‘ now. I wouldn’t bother if I were you. I’d take a long weekend, catch up with the family, maybe go fishing.

We know the Tory strategy:

How? Have you been infiltrating their private meetings again?

flooding a small handful of our key seats with messages designed to frighten their way into power.

Your key seats? The Tories are flooding your key seats? I doubt it. I think they’re probably targeting their key seats, actually. Unless you’re so arrogant that you feel that every seat is one of your seats, and it’s terrible that the other nasty parties are stealing them from you.

You’ve seen their posters.

I have. And none of them frightened me. They highlighted important election issues, and asked if I agreed with their point of view on them (which, for the most part, I don’t). But they didn’t put up big scary pictures of the opposition doctored in anti-Semitic ways, did they?

We can beat them, but I need your help.

I’m not wild about that sentence construction. You should have gone for “Together, we can beat them. But we need your help”. But hey, you didn’t. That’s your choice. Oh, and you won’t be getting my help.

Please help us in the next 24 hours.

I’ll help you in the next twenty-four hours as much as I did in the last. Is that okay with you?

Your support NOW can make a huge difference to our campaign in the last few days.

Given that there are eight days left, it seems strange that you’re talking about ‘the last few’. That’s over a third of the campaign to go.

[Link to the Labour website’s donation page]

I’m not even going to show that link, just in case anyone should be tempted to click it.

We have just a few days to stand up and shout loud to Britain

I’m not going to vote for a party that shouts at me – and I suspect I’m not alone on that. I want a party that can put forward reasoned arguments in a rational and considered way. Not the one that can shout the loudest.

if you value economic stability, a free and fair NHS and continued investment in our schools, you have to go out and vote for it.

And which party isn’t promising all of these things? And, as I’ve said before, I can’t vote for those things, because they are abstract concepts and not candidates.

Please dig deep into your pockets tonight so that the seats that need resources will get them. I know you may have donated your money and your time before, but every penny you can spare is so important.

The seats don’t need resources. The candidates need resources. Unless you’re going to be generous, and split the donations between all the candidates contesting these seats.

[Link to the Labour website’s donation page]

I’m still not showing it.

This is our fight for a historic third term Labour government – embedding progressive values for a generation.

I’m still not wild about ‘a historic’, but as a Guardian-reader I can’t really comment. And the values are only ‘progressive’ if that’s the way I choose to view them.

If you value the progress we’ve made, make a donation today.

If you value the lives of soldiers, don’t.

If you want to see opportunity for everyone, not just the privileged few, in our country, then please help us now.

If you want a truly ethical government, you’re even more naive than me. And you shouldn’t support Labour.

If you want to stop Michael Howard’s campaign of fear, help us to make our campaign as strong as possible in the last few days.

Where is this ‘campaign of fear’? I think I’ve missed it. The only campaign of fear I’ve seen is the one that keeps insisting that the Tories will charge for NHS operations (which they won’t), allow the economy to go to pot (which they won’t), and neglect the most needy (which they won’t). That’s your campaign.

[Link to the Labour website’s donation page]

You clearly underestimate my ability to click on a link you’ve already presented twice. If you think I’m that pathetic, you don’t deserve my vote.

Thanks for all you do for us – it really does make a difference.

Well, okay, I’m not sure exactly what it is I ‘do for you’, but I’m glad that you’re happy with my service.

Matt Carter
General Secretary

I bet you won’t be writing all the emails next week. If we don’t see an email proporting to be from Tony Blair within the next eight days, then I’ll post the full lyrics to the Um Bongo song come 6th May.

Now there’s a challenge.

I think that this site probably requires a very specific kind of sense of humour. But if, like me, you’ve got it, you’ll love it. So take a look.

Tony Blair, following his spring conference epiphany, claimed that he and the party were no longer arrogant. Now it’s not that I’m doubting that, but I’m not entirely sure what else announcing that ‘the job is largely done’ a little under two weeks before polling day – and a little over half way though the campaign – can be called.

When will Mr Blair realise that Mr Campell is more of a liability than an asset? And when will Mr Campbell realise that Mr Blair is more of a liability than an asset? They should, as usual, all be ashamed. And should certainly not receive your vote.

This is a huge non-story – but the symbolism is nice. A former MP, long-time Labour backbencher, now supports the Lib Dems. But if Sedgemore can jump ship, maybe Sedgefield will too? We can only hope…

Tony Blair today defended his decision to take the country to war and accused the opposition parties of campaigning on Iraq because they have “nothing serious to say about the issues facing our country for the future”.

So says the Grauniad. But, in response to Mr Blair, isn’t the gravest issue for our future the responsibility we place in our leaders to ensure our own security? And if this election will result in the election of a Prime Minister who can declare war at will, isn’t it important to know that he would only do that for the best of reasons? It’s possibly the most important issue about our future.

And, besides, the other parties have said far more than Labour about their plans for the future of our country. And their leaders weren’t orange when they said it. And where have your wrinkles disappeared to? Botoxia?