This story of members of miners’ families being told that they were alive, only for it to turn out that the information was wrong, and all but one had died, is clearly tragic, and my thoughts are with the family and friends of the dead.  But one small thing struck me: When it was falsely announced that the miners were alive, the assembled crowds thanked god.  When it was announced that a mistake had been made and the men were actually dead, they blamed the company.  I just thought that was an interesting disparity – make of it what you will.

Being the Prediction Expert – nay, Deity – that I am, I feel it’s my duty to share with you my one random prediction for 2006.  But first, let’s review what I said on January 4th 2005 – precisely one year ago today…

MSN is my ‘big tip’ for 2005… Google could be seriously threatened

Let’s all celebrate how wrong that prediction was… MSN has made big leaps forward since January 2005, but it’s not even close to challenging Google’s dominance in the search marketplace.  But as the Google behemoth is increasingly questioned by the internet community at large in the same way that Microsoft began to be questioned in the 90s, perhaps this is the moment for some other internet technology to break through and change the internet in the same way that Google did.  Indeed, business experts already report the beginnings of a second dot-com bubble.

Some say that citizen journalism will change the face of the web and the news media.  That, as far as I can see, is a load of bollocks.  Not to put too fine a point on it, of course.  But, frankly, idiots like me spouting ‘news’ and half-baked opinions and predictions (see above for example), however loud we shout, are never going to rival the newsgathering power of organisations like the Beeb.  Yes, quality citizen journalism brings a personal aspect to the news – you just have to read some personal accounts written by those caught up in th 2004 tsunami or the 7th July London Bombings to realise that.  But as more and more sites like mine spring up, where the uninformed essentially pontificate on the day’s news of which they are hardly informed themselves, the genuine wheat becomes harder to separate from the ever-increasing chaff, and the value of citizen journalism as a whole declines.

The blog is distinctly not the killer application of the web.  But what is? 

How the hell should I know?

I read today that the Government is considering electronically tagging parents who fail to pay child support (rather unfortunately phrased as ‘those dads who are not paying for their kids’, but let’s not get into that).  A simple question: Why?

The idea is to restrict the movements of people who don’t pay up.  How on Earth will that help?  Dad doesn’t have any money to give mum, mum doesn’t have any money, the child grows up in poverty.  What does tagging achieve?  Dad doesn’t have any money to give mum, dad’s movements are restricted and employability reduced so he has less chance to make some money, mum doesn’t have any money, the child grows up in poverty.

Yes, there are some parents who refuse to pay child support on principle.  But they’re already able to be sentenced to six weeks in prison.  Surely tagging is a lesser threat, and hence less likely to make people comply?  Of course, the politicians seem to be suggesting that it’s ‘easier’ to tag someone than to send them to prison.  Certainly for the CSA itself, it should make no difference, as a prosecution in a Court of Law is presumably needed for either, and given that tagging is supposed to replicate the loss of freedom in prison, surely a similar burden of proof is needed.

The CSA has never really worked properly in its entire history.  It currently costs £1 in administration for every £1.85 recovered, and that doesn’t include the cost of the prosecutions handled by the judiciary, which also comes from taxpayer’s pockets.  All in all, it probably costs more to recover the money than it would to just hand it out.  Even Mr Blair, who rarely dares admit such a thing, says it doesn’t do it’s job properly (though why it’s taken him eight years to find that out is something of a mystery). Can we not just put it out of its misery? 

Well, under a Labour government, probably not until they’ve come up with something even more bureaucratic to replace it.  Why not do the simple thing of handing the job over to the Inland Revenue and taking the money out of people’s pay packet directly?  Then there’s no chasing to be done, and far less administration, and far less chance of people failing to pay.  But then, that’s probably too simple a solution.

So, as from yesterday, we now have a choice of four hospitals for medical treatment.  Unfortunately, the computers aren’t working yet, so after referral, you will be sent a list of hospitals, you’ll reply with your preferred choice, that hospital will then be sent the referral, they’ll then put you on the waiting list.  So, going at typical NHS speed for the production of all those letters, and typical Royal Mail speed for delivery, that’s a good month between the initial referral and you actually being put on the hospital waiting list. 

Pat ‘crazy lady‘ Hewitt tells us this will make waiting times fall.  Probably by about a month, I’d guess.

I wish all my readers a very happy and prosperous 2006, and I hope that you’ll continue to visit throughout the year. Happy New Year!