Guido reckons it’s a tipping point. Maybe he’s right. Today’s Popbitch tagline:

Does this mean it’s all over?

Previously, on sjhoward.co.uk:

Mr Blair’s statement has put a sticking plaster over his gaping wounds, the question is merely how long it will last. It won’t last seven or eight months. It only needs one comment from one MP, one letter, or one more resignations to painfully tear the sticking plaster away, and it’s just too tempting.

What I didn’t even begin to predict was that it would be Charles Clarke of all people who broke the co-ordinated silence, seemingly in an attempt to register that he hates the world now he’s been sacked. And now Labour’s got itself into an unrecoverable mess. Labour is entertaining complete self-destruction. And boy, is it entertaining.

Labour is divided, and by fielding a realistic Blarite candidate against Brown, as now seems likely, Blair will actually have managed to pull apart the whole party. The longer he remains in office, the greater the sniping, and the greater the division. Fielding a controversial candidate deepens the division still further, and even if a mid-way ‘third’ candidate was found and won the leadership, there’s no way the party would have chance to unite behind such a leader in just two years.

Right now, I can’t see how the next election can be lost by the Conservatives – it would take them to do something pretty damn stupid.

But, y’know, it’s quite fun to watch. Quote of the day comes from The Observer, reporting Tony Blair’s alleged comments about Gordon Brown:

I have never known how mendacious he [Gordon] was, how full of mendacity.

Of course, someone of Blair’s stature would never just say ‘fucking liar’. Not in a million years. Ahem.

And it’s fun watching them trying to pick credible alternatives, too. Let’s look at the options:

1. Alan Milburn: Mr “I’d do anything to win“, he’s had form for some time, and probably doesn’t warrant revisiting. Ewww.
2. Charles Clarke: You are kidding, right? Who’d be in his cabinet? He hates the world.
3. John Reid: Mr “Attack Dog“, also a proficient liar. It would be quite entertaining to see him try to be nice to voters, rather than aggressive. Certainly a favourite from the entertainment perspective.
4. Alan Johnson: The least offensive, but with the charisma of an earthworm. Labour’s approximate equivalent of IDS. Or IBS.

Actually, my favourite Blairite for the job would be Hazel Blears, and no-one seems to be considering her. Think of the fun of seeing if her ridiculous perma-smile and grating chirpiness could survive a humiliating electoral defeat. Is that cruel? Probably.

I’ve never considered Blair to be one of the greatest orators to have occupied Number 10, but maybe I’ve underestimated him. It’s quite impressive to see him give a full statement about leaving office without using the word ‘resign’. Or even ‘quit’ or ‘leave’. The nearest thing he’s given to a soundbite is

The next party conference in a couple of weeks will be my last party conference as party leader.

He’s even managed to rush the sentence so much that it can’t realistically be used as a soundbite. That’s pretty impressive, and very well done. Is this this the first speech Tony’s done where he’s consciously avoided the soundbite?

Quite honestly, though, I don’t think it matters. I think even the smallest of the Labour minnows will not be put off from making their views on his Premiership clear just because he says it’s bad, and even the super-loyal MPs trotted out across every network immediately after the speech to scare them a little more won’t make them feel threatened.

Mr Blair’s statement has put a sticking plaster over his gaping wounds, the question is merely how long it will last. It won’t last seven or eight months. It only needs one comment from one MP, one letter, or one more resignations to painfully tear the sticking plaster away, and it’s just too tempting.

It was a valiant effort, though, and I’m rather impressed. Just not impressed enough to want him to stay.

There’s always been something of Greek tragedy about the Tony Blair story. He unites the party and the country, presenting himself as a down-to-Earth everyman with the power to put right the wrongs of the Tories, but is ultimately corrupted by addictive power, and now drives apart the very party he united through his desperate bid to stay on at the top.

There are now several letters circulating the Parliamentary Labour Party, some calling for Tony to resign, others calling for him to stay on. Could there be any more fundamental a division in the party?

His allies say he’ll be gone within a year, but really, it no longer matters. The party’s in turmoil, and there’s no way they will all unite happily around Gordon Brown – party unrest can’t be settled merely with a change of leader. Ian Westbrook reckons the party will be destroyed if Tony goes on for another year – I think it’s verging on that point already.

Whenever Tony goes, and whether it’s with his preposterous ‘Farewell tour‘ or not, it will be undignified, with him appearing to have been pushed rather than jumping. Iain Dale, who knows far more about such things than I, thinks the memo about the tour was leaked on purpose. If it was, it shows how poor the Number 10 Press Office has become at judging the news cycle – a ridiculous story about a big-in-his-boots Prime Minister planning to resign merely makes people call for him to do it right now.

Perhaps a quote from here sums it all up best:

What was a ‘lame duck’ Premiership has just become a ‘dead duck’ Premiership

Quack.

I’m waking up this morning to the news that the ‘Crocodile Hunter’, Steve Irwin, has been killed in an accident whilst filming his latest documentary.  He died about six hours ago after a stingray attack to the chest in the Batt Reef of the Low Isles, near Cairns in Australia.  The Sydney Morning Herald has full details.

This is really quite a shock.  I think we all knew that what Steve did in his documentaries was almost ludicrously dangerous, but I don’t think anyone ever expected him to die.  In the modern age of special effects and stuntmen, perhaps the dangers people put themselves through for their art are never truly recognised.  The bitter irony is that few people are killed by stingrays – the life of a naturalist famed for working with the most dangerous of animals has been ended by a common, often harmless creature.

Steve leaves behind wife Terri, daughter Bindi (8), and son Bob (2).  My thoughts are with them this morning.

In an interview with The Times, the Dear Leader has said, with respect to when he will stand down:

people should stop speculating

Instead, we should

look at what I have said and draw conclusions about that

Eh? Maybe someone’s had too much sun…

Stomach-wrenchingly abhorrent news from The Guardian:

A Vatican official has said the Catholic church will excommunicate a medical team who performed Colombia’s first legal abortion on an 11-year-old girl, who was eight weeks pregnant after being raped by her stepfather.

Cardinal Alfonso Lopez Trujillo, the president of the Vatican’s Pontifical Council for the Family, said in addition to the doctors and nurses, the measure could apply to “relatives, politicians and lawmakers” whom he called “protagonists in this abominable crime”.

Why on Earth does Middle England complain so much about Islamic society when Christianity – the religion at the heart of Middle England – does as many things which are at least comparably terrible on a daily basis? I don’t get it.

Perhaps it’s because Middle England don’t know that these things happen – after all, a story like this would never feature in the Daily Mail, as to do so would be to cast doubt upon the beliefs and values of it’s readership. Far better that they reinforce the prejudices by using dubious research to convince it that the 2% of the population that have an Islamic belief system pose an immediate threat to the future of the UK.

How can anyone justify forcing an 11-year-old raped by her step-father to carry her child to term?  That is evil.  And that is the decision of one of the most senior people in the Catholic church, Cardinal Alfonso Lopez Trujillo, who will almost certainly oversee the conclave to select the next Pope.  This is not some crazy parish priest in some far-flung land.  This is a crazy senior priest in the highest echelons of the Vatican.

Just, for a second, imagine the uproar if these were the words of an Imam.  Yet, because this is apparently based in Christian “truth”, nobody blinks.  I just wish the world could, for once, look past religion, with it’s ifs, buts, excuses, corruption, out-dated teachings, and evil actions, and work towards true, universal, morality.

There’s been much speculation over the last few days concerning Charles Kennedy’s drinking past, mainly fueled by the pending release of Greg Hurst’s new book. Essentially, though, it doesn’t seem to say an awful lot more than most people already presumed.

I say past drinking problem – but just exactly how “past” is it? I know that any recovering alcoholic would say they are never really ‘cured’ of alcoholism, but there’s certainly been a general idea that Charles has given up the alcohol after being in an alcohol detox Arizona center for several months, and is doing his best to adjust to life without it: An admirable ideal. Indeed, back in January, when admitting his problem for the first time at an extraordinary press conference, Charles said:

As a matter of fact I’ve not had a drink for the past two months and I don’t intend to in the future.

But Guido now appears to be suggesting that Mr Kennedy may not be living up to the high standard he’s set himself:

Sharper readers of the dead-tree-press will realise that headlines like “Kennedy ‘must recover’ before return” and “Sir Menzies Campbell made clear that he would be welcome but only once he is ‘fully recovered’ ” don’t make sense if he is now sober …

To be fair, when asked on television recently when it was he last had a drink Kennedy avoided answering the question. Guido knows that he has been the worse for wear as recently as June.

I like Mr Kennedy. I don’t think he’s the solution to all the world’s problems, but he was a different kind of politician to those who usually gravitate to the position of leader, and that was probably healthy for democracy. I would really hate for him to be politically damaged further by appearing to be deceiving the public a second time. I don’t think he’s done that yet, but I really think he needs to watch his step, and handle things very carefully and delicately.

Honesty may well be the best policy second time around.

Look at the picture, listen to the clip from The Morning Report, heck, visit Ashley Morris’s blog if you want to. I don’t understand how this can happen in the world’s richest country in the 21st century, and I’m not even going to try and comment on something that I can’t begin to comprehend.

You may have been wondering if your tax money is well spent. You’ll be reassured to know that vast amounts of it (goodness knows how much) have gone in to producing videos like this.

Particular favourite parts for me were the house which was “trashed” by knocking over a single wooden chair, and the fact that headteachers can “manage loo roll” online. That’s a real boon.

On top of this, the wonderful people at the Home Office have launched ads promoting their “Think U Know” website. Yes, that’s radio ads. Reading out the address thinkuknow.co.uk. They’ve now been withdrawn, after it took someone to complain that thinkuknow.co.uk sound exactly like thinkyouknow.co.uk, which is a different website altogether.

Yes, it took a listener to tell the ASA that Think U Know and Think You Know sound the same on radio. Nobody from John Reid to the person doing the recording managed to notice. The ad’s now in the bin.

This government promised to cut waste. Something tells me it’s failing.

Update: As if you weren’t already convinced that the video was a waste of time, I can’t even show it any more!  It’s been withdrawn on the basis that it breached Government copyright. Despite being posted by the Government. Well done.