Today’s swing figure:

» 1.95% swing to the Conservatives «

Is this the start of a Conservative bounce? It’s hard to tell with only one poll out today (Times/Populus 39/33), but in terms of fieldwork it’s the mose recent since since Mori’s 40/32, so it does look like the gap might be closing again. The magic forumla currently has the parties at 39/33 as well, though, so perhaps the most recent poll is just consolidating the current position, rather than showing a turn-around. It will be interesting to see where we get over the next few days… but perhaps Michael Howard was right to insist on keeping his current strategy – and it would see that it’s worried Labour a little, since they tried to move their press conference to clash with the Conservative one. So the Conservatives respond by sensibly putting their’s back half an hour, so Labour responds by over-running. That’s not trying to win through better policies, that’s trying to win through playground tactics. Next time Labour move their press conference, can we please have a press agreement that no-one turns up?