About me
Archive
About me

What’s a 30% chance of rain? And why does it matter to doctors?

The news reader announces a 30% chance of rain tomorrow. Thirty per cent of what? Most people in Berlin think that it will rain tomorrow 30% of the time. Others believe that it will rain tomorrow in 30% of the region. In New York the majority believe that it will rain on 30% of the days for which the prediction was made.

This is the (edited) opening of BMJ 2012;344:e245, a fascinating paper about single event probabilities by Gigerenza and Galesic. It’s only short, quite fun, and may convince you to change your practice. Well worth a read.

This 1,489th post was filed under: Diary Style Notes, Health, Quotes, , , .

More posts worth reading

Cortado (published 20th February 2019)

Room with a view (published 18th February 2019)

The Nativity × Gaudí (published 17th February 2019)

Blair to be questioned by Humphrys (published 1st February 2007)

Photo-a-day 351: Roll on the spring! (published 17th December 2012)

Photo-a-day 194: Broadcasting House (published 12th July 2012)

The boy who played with fusion (published 17th August 2012)


Comments and responses

No comments or responses to this article have been published yet.

Compose a new comment



Comment

You may use these tags: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong> .

If you would like to display a profile picture beside your comment, sign up for Gravatar, and enter your email address above.

By submitting your comment, you confirm that it conforms to the site's comment policy. Comments are subject to both automatic and human moderation, and may take some time to appear.



The content of this site is copyright protected by a Creative Commons License, with some rights reserved. All trademarks, images and logos remain the property of their respective owners. The accuracy of information on this site is in no way guaranteed. Opinions expressed are solely those of the author. No responsibility can be accepted for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information provided by this site. This site uses cookies - click here for more information.