About me
About me

Swing Update


Hold up! Before you read on, please read this...

This post was published more than 14 years ago

I keep old posts on the site because I often enjoy reading old content on other people's sites. It can be interesting to see how views have changed over time: for example, how my strident teenage views have, to put it mildly, mellowed.

I'm not a believer in brushing the past under the carpet. I've written some offensive rubbish on here in the past: deleting it and pretending it never happened doesn't change that. I hope that stumbling across something that's 14 years old won't offend anyone anew, because I hope that people can understand that what I thought and felt and wrote about then is probably very different to what I think and feel and wrote about now. It's a relic of an (albeit recent) bygone era.

So, given the age of this post, please bear in mind:

  • My views may well have changed in the last 14 years. I have written some very silly things over the years, many of which I find utterly cringeworthy today.
  • This post might use words or language in ways which I would now consider highly inappropriate, offensive, embarrassing, or all three.
  • Factual information might be outdated.
  • Links might be broken, and embedded material might not appear properly.

Okay. Consider yourself duly warned. Read on...

Today’s swing figure:

» 2.87% swing to the Conservatives «

Somewhat ironically, after all of their campaigning, the Torygraph have done the biggest damage to the Conservatives’ projected swing today. The Sunday Times/YouGov poll has the parties virtually tied at 36/35, whereas the Telegraph/ICM has Labour with a commanding lead, at 40/30. The Sindie/Communicate poll (the formula has now been adjusted to take account of Communicate polls) has them on 40/34. Of course last time YouGov were most accurate, and it is unusual for these polls to be so different, especially when all three have been published on the same day.

The magic swing formula, as it should really become known, has them on 38/33 at the moment, which is somewhere in between all three (you know, just in case you’re no good at mental arithmetic), so it’s pretty difficult to call where the ball lies today. Obviously, I’m duty-bound to believe my formula above all else. But you can make up your own mind.

This 508th post was filed under: Election 2005.

Some recently published posts

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Some random old posts

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Comments and responses

Comment from sjhoward

by sjhoward

Comment posted at 11:06 on 17th April 2005.

I’ve just updated this post to reflect the Sindie poll which I originally missed. It didn’t make too much difference overall as it happened.

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